UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse: Picks & Analysis

Page is the pure striker: 65% striking accuracy, a 52% KO rate and an 89% career win rate, with four of his last five going to decision. But his output is low at 2.28 significant strikes per minute, and his grappling is a glaring hole — 17% takedown accuracy and 12% submission defense metrics suggest he wins on points, not scrambles. At 39, he relies on timing and the 79-inch reach.

Ruziboev is the finisher's nightmare here: 37-9-2 with 21 submission wins, an 80% takedown accuracy and a 92% career finish rate. His last two outings were both Round 1 submissions. He gives up three inches of reach (76 to 79) but is the taller man at 6'5" and grapples at 1.4 takedowns per 15 with a 57% submission rate.

Page's path is keeping it standing and picking Ruziboev apart at range for three rounds. Ruziboev's path is far more repeatable given his 80% takedown accuracy against a man who stops only a fraction of attempts. Expect the grappler to close distance, drag Page down and hunt the choke. Ruziboev by submission, confidence 61 — Page's counter-striking keeps it from being a lock.

Peek is a wild finisher: an 89% KO rate and 89% finish rate off 4.39 strikes per minute at 58% accuracy. But his UFC-level results are ugly — 1-3 across his last four, with three straight decision losses before his lone recent win. At 31 he brings power but has repeatedly been outworked over 15 minutes by better-rounded opponents.

Campbell, just 23, is the more complete athlete with a monstrous 8.8 takedowns per 15 minutes, a 63% KO rate and an 89% win rate. He owns a two-inch reach edge (72 to 70) and offers both knockout threat and relentless wrestling. His only blemish is a Round 2 KO loss in his last outing, so durability is a live question.

Peek's route is landing the big shot early — his power is real and Campbell has been stopped. But Campbell's grappling volume is the deciding factor: if he plants Peek on the mat repeatedly, Peek's 0% submission wins and thin defensive record collapse. Campbell by decision at 60 — youth, wrestling and cage control over a striker who keeps losing rounds.

Identical frames here: both 6'5" with 79-inch reach, so this is decided by durability and efficiency, not physical edges. Spann is the grappling specialist — 14 submission wins, a 58% submission rate and an 88% finish rate — but his striking defense is the concern. He's been KO'd in Round 2 twice in his recent stretch (both to punches) and hits at just 41% accuracy.

Pinto is undefeated at 12-0 with a spotless 100% win rate, a 58% KO rate and a remarkable 82% striking accuracy — elite precision at heavyweight. Three of his last four were finishes, all by punches. His weakness is a thin 26% takedown accuracy, but defensively he hasn't been tested by a submission specialist yet.

Spann's only clear path is to drag Pinto down and attack the neck — his guillotine game is genuine, with two recent Round 1 finishes that way. But Pinto's precision and Spann's documented chin problems point the other way: Spann has been stopped by punches twice recently, and Pinto's 82% accuracy is exactly the weapon to exploit it. Pinto by KO/TKO, confidence 63.